FADE.MARKET · THE PREDICTION MARKET · PAPER · CONNECTING

fade

/feɪd/verb · trading

To bet against a sharp market move, expecting a price that jumped or crashed too fast to turn back around.

Contrarian trading, textbook definition. The history of the fade

Markets overreact. When one does, our algorithm grades the moment A to F and turns it into one question anyone can answer:

A green line. A red line. Which one hits first? Pick a line, and it shows you exactly what it pays.

We turn trades into predictions. Start free with a paper account. Every call we have ever made is settled on a public record, wins and losses alike.

SETTLED ON A PUBLIC RECORD · WINS AND LOSSES ALIKE

LIVE MARKETS · ALL GRADES

Every card is a live graded setup off the real

DAILY RACES · ALWAYS ON

One race on each major, refreshed every day. Two lines sit the same distance above and below the open price. Pick the line that prints first. Win and the printed amount pays; no touch inside 24 hours returns your stake in full.

Reading today's races now.

LIVE MARKETS · ALL GRADES

Every card is a live graded setup off the real board, refreshed every minute. The grade is our published prior, never the question: you are predicting the price.

Reading the live board now.

WHY THE SHELF CAN BE QUIET

Graded fades are rare on purpose

The algorithm only fires on real overreactions, and that selectivity IS the record. A quiet board means no honest question to ask right now, and we will never invent one. The daily races above run on the majors every day, so there is always something to predict. When a fade prints, it appears here within a minute or two.

YOUR PICKS

No picks yet

Pick a line on any live market and it lands here, riding the tape until it settles. Your record builds pick by pick, wins and losses alike.

HOW IT WORKS
STEP 1

The algorithm catches an overreaction

HOW IT WORKS
STEP 1

The algorithm catches an overreaction

It scans 150+ names all day. When a price moves too far too fast, it grades the moment A to F against the conditions the research says matter: volume, news, structure, size of the move.

STEP 2

You pick a price

Two prices on the card, each with its payout printed. Your pick is a real position underneath: a $100 paper stake at the maximum leverage the asset allows, take profit at your price. Your price hits and the printed amount pays, or the stake is gone. Never more than your stake.

STEP 3

The market settles it, not us

Prices come off the public tape. We are never the counterparty and we never hold your money. Paper today; connecting your own exchange account comes next, with real-money routing gated by account status and region.

THE RULES, IN PLAIN WORDS
RULE 1

Two prices, first touch wins

The moment either price prints on the public tape, the market settles. If one coarse reading trips both, the losing line counts first. We settle against ourselves, never for ourselves.

RULE 2

72 hours, then the clock calls it

No answer inside 72 hours: the position closes at the market price and you keep what it is worth. On the public record the question settles NO. Our published win rates exclude timeouts; the market counts them. Two different numbers, both printed.

RULE 3

The house never plays

We grade the questions and we settle them, so we never take a side. The grade and both prices freeze the moment the question opens. Nothing is regraded in hindsight, and every settled question stays on the record, wins and losses alike.

THE ALGORITHM · THE PUBLIC RECORD

Check the record before you trust a single card. Rates shown exclude timeouts and say so.

THE RECORD BY GRADE

Loading the record.

The full version race and forward-test method live on the algorithm page. The version race is displayed as proof and is never something you can bet on.

THE HISTORY OF THE FADE
EARLY 1900s · THE CRAPS TABLE

"Fade the shooter"

In craps, to fade a shooter was to take the bet against the man rolling: betting against the crowd's hero. The oldest meaning is the modern one. Stand against the excitement.

MID-1900s · THE TRADING FLOOR

Traders adopt the word

Floor traders start fading the gap and fading the move, trading against the morning's panic. It stays slang: everyone knows the word, nobody writes the rules down.

1985 · ACADEMIA CATCHES UP

"Does the Stock Market Overreact?"

De Bondt and Thaler publish the landmark paper: markets systematically overreact, and yesterday's extreme losers beat yesterday's extreme winners. The fade stops being slang and becomes a documented market anomaly. The title of that paper is literally our thesis.

1990 TO 2012 · THE EVIDENCE PILES UP

When fades work best

Lehmann (1990) documents short-term reversals. Conrad and coauthors (1993) find reversals strongest on high volume. Chan (2003) shows moves with no news behind them reverse hardest: panic without a reason snaps back. Nagel (2012) frames the profit as payment for standing in when others must get out.

TODAY · FADE.MARKET

The first graded, public record of fades

An algorithm reads every extreme move against those same conditions and grades it A to F. Every call frozen at grade time, settled in public, wins and losses alike. And now anyone can play it: pick a line.

WHO RUNS THIS
BUILT BY A TRADER WHO FADES FOR A LIVING

Naeem Al-Obaidi has traded these exact setups for over a decade. 1st place, WEEX Trading Battle, Dubai: a live competition with a public result. The algorithm is his method written down, graded the same way on a record anyone can check, and he trades the calls live on stream: same cards, real positions, wins and losses on camera. Competition results are not income claims. We do not do income claims.

TWO WAYS TO USE FADE.MARKET

Simple, where you are

One question at a time. Pick a line. The stake is fixed, the leverage is set for you, the exit is automatic.

Advanced: the terminal

For people who already trade: the full trading surface with the ladder, brackets, live Hyperliquid routing, the AI coach and the debrief log. It runs beautifully on a phone. Both modes share one account and one record. Switching is instant and nothing is lost; your picks here are real positions there.

PROFILE

Your account

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The algorithm The full board Advanced terminal Membership Terms Privacy Paper trading is simulated. Nothing here is investment advice.